Are Texas power prices still going up? (Jul 2026)
Texas residential electricity in July 2026, against the same month a year earlier and against its own cycle, with the mild-summer explanation checked rather than assumed.
Published
The short answer
Yes. Texas residential electricity is dearer than it was a year ago.
The average residential price in July 2026 was 15.88 cents per kilowatt-hour — up 3.4% year over year, and down 6.5% from the peak (U.S. Energy Information Administration, as of July 2026).
The series, not the headline
A single month’s price is a number; the shape either side of it is the answer. Texas residential power is measured here against its own preceding months and against the same month a year earlier — never against another state, and never against a bill, which depends on how much you used.
- Against last year: 15.88 cents per kilowatt-hour now, up 3.4% year over year.
- Against this cycle: down 6.5% from the peak.
- The sharpest single move we hold: a 6.4% rise in one month.
“It was just a mild summer”
The obvious explanation is the weather: a mild July means less cooling, less demand, less strain. It is at least available this time — San Antonio ran below normal. Austin recorded 644 cooling degree-days in July 2026 (NOAA NCEI Global Summary of the Month, as of July 2026), against a July normal of 644.8 cooling degree-days (NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals 1991-2020) — -0.1% against the normal. San Antonio recorded 607 cooling degree-days (NOAA NCEI Global Summary of the Month, as of July 2026) against 643.3 cooling degree-days (NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals 1991-2020) — -5.6% against the normal. Available is not the same as established, and nothing we hold measures the link.
What we are not saying
We cannot say from the data we hold what moved the price; the cause is not established here. A price series records what was charged. It does not record why, and the explanations that sound most obvious — fuel costs, a rate change, contract mix — are exactly the ones we hold no data for. So we are not going to tell you which it was.